US economics + weather · Kalshi + Polymarket
Find where prediction markets miss the mark.
Follow market probabilities, explore daily temperature ranges, and compare supported contracts with an independent forecast and public track record.
Market board
| Event | Kalshi | Polymarket | Consensus | Fair | Gap | Conf | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
How the fair value is computed
- 1Market: the live YES price on Kalshi and Polymarket, blended into a liquidity-weighted consensus.
- 2Fair: an independent probability from a public nowcast (Cleveland Fed, GDPNow) and the historical distribution of its misses. No LLM sets a number.
- 3Gap: fair minus consensus, in points. Every fair value is logged with its method version and never edited after the fact.
Probabilities are estimates and may be wrong. MarketMiss executes no trades and holds no funds. Full disclaimer.